Prepared mind

In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.
—Louis Pasteur, Famous Chemist and Microbiologist

One more round

“Fight one more round. When your feet are so tired that you have to shuffle back
to the center of the ring, fight one more round. When your arms are so tired that
you can hardly lift your hands to come on guard, fight one more round. When
your nose is bleeding and your eyes are black and you are so tired that you wish
your opponent would crack you one on the jaw and put you to sleep, fight one
more round—remembering that the man who always fights one more round is never
whipped.”
—James J. “Gentleman Jim” Corbett, Heavyweight Boxing Champ

Four classes of men in market

I wouldn’t say that. I would answer it this way: I believe that men make markets and man doesn’t change. Man may or may not interpret the importance of the fundamental the way I do. I believe that there are different classes of men and that in every market, there are always these four classes of men to a greater or lesser degree. Of course, there are much more than four types of men in the markets. But for the sake of simplicity and analysis, I have reduced them to four. Each group can at any one time be dominant. The key is to know what the mix is of men who are making the markets. It’s a question of which class will win out, and which class is dominant.

The first class of men doesn’t think. The second does think, but must have a reason for taking action. They are going to succeed over the long haul. The third class is in there professionally — hedgers, commercials. The fourth class thinks that they think. They are highly emotional and are never able to control their emotions.

The difference is this: many people can’t think, but only do what they are told. Usually, the first class makes up the majority of a market. Today they don’t — they need to have an exciting market. The second group is comprised of people who are intelligent and are able to think for themselves — the successful traders. The members of the fourth group try to think for themselves, but are incapable of anything more that emotional thinking.

IM: So 1975-1980 might be a period of time where the metal markets were dominated by those who don’t think — the outside speculator who just wants to buy a bull market. The commercial might be someone who sold the metals, and the higher they got, the more the commercial sold.

There’s a difference between those who speculate for money, and those who trade — not to make a lot of money — but to protect their inventory. The hedgers are the third class and think more long term.

The ride up was caused by those who don’t think, but the wild excessive top to the gold — and to virtually every market — is caused by the fourth group — the emotional traders.

Bull markets breed emotionalism and therefore attract the fourth class, as well as the first class. The third class is always in the market, by necessity. And the second class is never very far, always looking to get in early on an attractive opportunity. So the first and fourth class of men change the market in its later stages, bringing extremes. I think there were fundamentals that caused the gold market to go up, but not as high as it did. At key turning points in the market, the fourth class dominates, such as when we saw $800. gold.

It is something that I’ve learned to do that I think is invaluable. You see, I try never to let a trade get to me to the point that I’m anxious about it. I’m not a master of my anxiety, so once I feel myself coming to that point, that alone is reason enough to get out of the trade. Once I begin to worry about it, I might better be out of it. There’s no way to recoup my losses by keeping this trade, since there’s no way I can.

A good trader doesn’t let fear or anxiety dominate him. He must demonstrate that he can by doing something about it and not worrying.

Most of the people who have traded commodities are walking dead men. They remember and fixate on the fear they experienced when they were wrong. Unless they can shake that, they’ll never trade well again. The experience has been so painful that they will remember it for the rest of their lives.

I concentrate on possibilities rather than probabilities.

I know that there’s always a possibility that what I don’t want to happen, will happen. The market will not act in accord with my expectations.

You have to ask the question, ‘How must you function in order to survive?’ The answer is to be able to accept a loss. Not having expectations makes it a little easier to accept a loss. You must realize that losing is a part of soul growth, so to speak. It’s necessary. It’s hard to accept, but necessary.------LONGSTREET

Change

People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them. - Jean Monnet

The Seed

When we think about events, either in our daily lives, or in the market or the economy, it is important that we don't think of them as simply existing or coming out of nowhere. This is, because that is. This is not, because that is not. We cannot create or remove a condition, expect it to emerge or expect it to disappear, without understanding the seed that produces it, and the causes and conditions that allow it to spring up.-----Thich Nhat Hanh

Generally speaking, the seed we water is the one that grows. That's why if we spend our energy thinking about what we don't want, what we don't like, what is wrong – we'll tend to nurture and strengthen exactly the wrong things. If we water the seeds of peace, understanding, empathy, happiness, and so on, those are the seeds that will grow.

The basic condition for anything to emerge is for the seed to exist. But that is not enough. The seeds of a bear market are often fully present in the later stages of a bull market – overvaluation, excessive speculation, acceptance of risk without sufficient compensation, extension of credit to poor credit risks, belief in the sustained growth of cyclical businesses, overconfidence, and so forth.

But in order to manifest as a flower, or a weed, or as fruit, other conditions have to be present. Buddhists distinguish two kinds – “same direction” and “opposing direction.”

Conditions in the opposing direction tend to hold back the manifestation of the seed, but can also force it to become stronger before it manifests. If you plant a seed in firmer soil, the roots may be forced to dig deeper in order to establish themselves and find water, whereas a seed in easier soil may grow more quickly but have weaker foundations, so it can be uprooted easily. Conditions in the same direction are those like water and sunlight, which provide the background environment necessary for the seed to grow.----------John P. Hussman

Zen of Market

A novice monk approaches his teacher and asks, “Is this a bull market or a bear market?”
The teacher replies, “If it is a warm day, and I say that it is winter, will you still wear your heaviest coat?”

Risk

“Ancient man had no risk management. Everything was left to ‘fate’ and the whims of the gods. Because ancient man felt that he was merely a victim of circumstance he did not see a need to plan for the future. Therefore, he had no future. In his book Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk, Peter Bernstein plots out the history of man’s discovery of the law of probabilities and risk management. Suffice it to say, economic progress seems to run parallel with man’s ability to discover, quantify, and manage risk. Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin. One is not present without the other. You cannot receive the reward unless you are willing to take the risk and you cannot expect to keep that reward unless you learn to mange that risk. It is imperative to master both subjects if you expect to be successful in any endeavor, especially the arena of investing/trading.”
–Source: Pearce Financial LLC

Bets

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”
–Larry Hite, Trader

“Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, ’should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?’ and ‘Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?’ Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets - large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. ‘Should I tie my shoes?’ Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned ’speeding and wildly careening bus’ would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”
–Larry Hite, Trader