The Seed

When we think about events, either in our daily lives, or in the market or the economy, it is important that we don't think of them as simply existing or coming out of nowhere. This is, because that is. This is not, because that is not. We cannot create or remove a condition, expect it to emerge or expect it to disappear, without understanding the seed that produces it, and the causes and conditions that allow it to spring up.-----Thich Nhat Hanh

Generally speaking, the seed we water is the one that grows. That's why if we spend our energy thinking about what we don't want, what we don't like, what is wrong – we'll tend to nurture and strengthen exactly the wrong things. If we water the seeds of peace, understanding, empathy, happiness, and so on, those are the seeds that will grow.

The basic condition for anything to emerge is for the seed to exist. But that is not enough. The seeds of a bear market are often fully present in the later stages of a bull market – overvaluation, excessive speculation, acceptance of risk without sufficient compensation, extension of credit to poor credit risks, belief in the sustained growth of cyclical businesses, overconfidence, and so forth.

But in order to manifest as a flower, or a weed, or as fruit, other conditions have to be present. Buddhists distinguish two kinds – “same direction” and “opposing direction.”

Conditions in the opposing direction tend to hold back the manifestation of the seed, but can also force it to become stronger before it manifests. If you plant a seed in firmer soil, the roots may be forced to dig deeper in order to establish themselves and find water, whereas a seed in easier soil may grow more quickly but have weaker foundations, so it can be uprooted easily. Conditions in the same direction are those like water and sunlight, which provide the background environment necessary for the seed to grow.----------John P. Hussman